14 Experimental Analysis Introduction

Routines are comforting and comfortable, and unless something changes, people stick to what has worked in the past. When people deliberately try to change, they usually make the effort because they hope for something better, or because they fear something about what they are doing now. Both the positive (seeking an improvement) and the negative (seeking to avoid) assume some kind of cause and effect between behavior and outcome.

The stronger the link between cause and effect, the more likely that individuals and society will change.  Examples from the last few decades include both problems that cigarettes, HIV, and texting while driving cause (lung cancer, AIDS, and car accidents, respectively), and benefits gained from new toys such as iPads and smartphones (the ability to text, the ability to connect to the internet anywhere with tower access, portable game players, music players, and—oh yes—phones). In each case, good or bad, there is a cause and an effect. It is fairly clear (now) that smoking harms the smoker and everyone within breathing distance. The clear and certain link—that smoking causes disease^[1] and death—has been critical to justifying laws and public policy curbing public smoking. Over the fifty years since the first Surgeon General’s report on the dangers of smoking, cigarette use has dropped by more than one half.^[2] Societal pressures have driven smoking out of college campuses, airports, restaurants, bars, and many other public spaces.^[3]